Forecast Revisited

Jacob and Rob quickly discuss rumors of an imminent U.S.-Iranian deal that could allow 1 million bpd of Iranian crude to hit global markets, before checking on their 2023 forecast and seeing how well their predictions have fared in the first half of the year. From there, they offer a few key thoughts on what to look for in the rest of the year before turning to an important article published in Nature this week called The Illusion of Moral Decline. For the first time in his life, Jacob meets an optimist more unbridled than he.

Link to article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06137-x#Sec4

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:24) - Iran-U.S. deal?

(17:43) – H1 2023 Forecast Recap

(33:20) – H2 2023 Forecast

(33:52) - Rob's Predictions

(37:18) - Jacob's Predictions

(43:00) - China, Local Government and Debt

(47:45) - Rob the Doomsayer (on China)

(51:03) – The illusion of moral decline

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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

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Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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Referenced In The Show:

Link to article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06137-x#Sec4

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis:

Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacy
Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp